Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 123.974983 142.719845 164.020915 190.159546 221.561034 258.309996 304.922700
2025-12-21 98.721888 122.028856 150.960167 190.009282 242.106707 310.335182 408.341277
2025-12-28 87.692914 114.386865 149.847366 201.457077 276.476047 384.547839 557.820210
2026-01-04 79.234979 107.847894 147.978873 210.114484 307.202263 459.138788 728.105068
2026-01-11 72.367525 102.051836 145.630697 216.784564 335.245063 534.992917 922.799033
2026-01-18 66.089786 96.018355 141.692329 219.767416 357.223759 605.148007 1129.678559
2026-01-25 60.355609 89.951687 136.652900 219.753751 373.526847 668.407387 1344.563350
2026-02-01 54.646069 83.187710 129.502741 214.770714 379.467268 712.750167 1534.453796
2026-02-08 49.731556 77.141649 122.742902 209.312114 383.200833 753.120536 1730.355361
2026-02-15 45.602092 71.955215 116.808745 204.406588 386.928959 794.114853 1944.576111
2026-02-22 44.629767 72.001400 119.996553 217.307620 430.276654 937.240076 2511.305841
2026-03-01 42.297454 69.424866 118.111126 219.789150 451.254748 1032.272972 2985.426789
2026-03-08 40.315343 67.373137 117.134868 224.374743 479.063816 1156.629286 3647.680884
2026-03-15 37.938815 64.384563 114.052045 224.047243 495.195277 1255.084587 4289.231202
2026-03-22 37.319164 64.596915 117.234322 238.031018 550.864428 1491.446993 5706.200105
2026-03-29 36.361318 64.059885 118.827053 248.645685 600.515826 1731.121228 7404.607157
2026-04-05 35.232526 63.074860 119.364857 256.840927 645.716218 1977.225784 9454.604442
2026-04-12 33.801550 61.354992 118.144197 260.509934 678.731459 2195.354481 11659.113292
2026-04-19 32.197105 59.145579 115.625241 260.493063 700.569712 2381.335889 13954.196279
2026-04-26 30.272682 56.126924 111.021511 254.364616 701.479981 2481.536485 15775.591355
2026-05-03 28.468335 53.228899 106.430162 247.658839 699.133394 2568.176300 17666.949744
2026-05-10 26.860015 50.630387 102.292230 241.639348 697.908062 2661.196252 19836.523507
2026-05-17 26.787752 51.301422 105.791017 257.483838 778.630955 3205.280473 28357.206928